Where Dennis Gartman Sees Gold Price Going Near Term

I haven’t written about Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter (TGL) much recently since he has been getting beat up quite a bit on his losing gold trades over the last year or so.

Dennis is a tough guy, though, and I think he can take it. Some speculate he is now using his very influential (and expensive) investment newsletter to “nudge” markets now that he has started a hedge fund as well. I won’t comment. In the past I always thought Mr. Gartman was of very high character and I know of nothing to change that opinion.

Recently, he has even been writing along the lines of a possible conspiracy in the price of gold, something I think he ridiculed in days past.

Currently, though, he is suggesting that the gold price will move back toward his (buy) target of $1000 per ounce in the next week or so. Naturally, Dennis uses more exotic language to state that simple point, but there it is.

He feels that people expecting higher prices in the short term have that opinion based on a misconception of the physical gold market. I don’t know, they claim Indian, Vietnamese and Chinese buying is all rather strong.

Buying of gold and silver in the United States, I feel, is still pretty much limited to us in the lunatic fringe.

But then again, they said that about us when we were buying at $280 an ounce 7 or 8 years ago. Wouldn’t you have rather had your money in the stock market – S&P 500, Dow 30 or the financials? Oh, wait, maybe not.

It isn’t too late yet to profit handsomely on the precious metals and the related mining shares. Many of those, in fact, reside in Canada which happens to have a pretty strong currency currently.

Be careful, though, this is not for the amateur. I rely on professionals to research what stocks to buy and sell. You can too.

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Dennis Gartman Notices Gold in Tight Trading Range

Dennis Gartman does not have a great track record on gold, so much so that many traders hate to be on the same side of a trade with him.

Dennis just commented the other day on gold’s tight and tighter trading range and wondering at what point it will shoot outside that range – and which direction.

Ed Steer is concerned about the 22 million ounces of gold that the bullion banks are short and thinking they will destroy the longs one more time in order to cover that short position at a profit. (Big banks are unaccustomed to taking losses in markets they control.)

Either way we will likely know soon. As Peter Grandich pointed out, gold’s soft season is all but behind us and now the stock markets traditional danger season is upon us.

So what does that mean? Anyone who knew for sure would not be working for a living.

What is the safest approach is to look for long term trends and follow them. Especially with the Chinese government encouraging gold and silver ownership among its population, it seems being long gold and silver is a much safer bet than being short.

With gold’s 200 day moving average now above $900, it would seem the downside is pretty limited. Any weakness is sure to be bought.

For the best information on gold, silver and the mining stocks you can get leverage with, click here.

Gold Price Encourages Scrap – Gartman

Record gold prices (in about every currency except the U.S. Dollar) is encouraging the public to become sellers of gold – for scrap. This, according to Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter, is making it tough for gold prices to pierce the US$925 – $930 level.

Apparently a lot of gold is finding its way into Dubai for the very purpose of being sold for scrap.

Now, in today’s economy, folks could be selling what they can just to get their hands on some cash. If that’s the case, it becomes a buyers market for those fortunate enough to have some spare cash laying around. History tells us that the desperate seller becomes the long term loser in trades such as this.

On the other end of the trading range, despite all of the pundits, gurus and experts who seem to think gold should retreat for a variety of reasons that would bore you should I list them here, gold doesn’t seem to spend too long below the $900 level before popping back up like a beach ball in the swimming pool.

And if it does head below $900 for any length of time, the likelihood of it reaching the chartists target of $830 seem remote to this writer; at least not before the summer doldrums hit.

If you like profiting from investment trends like this, I can do you no better than to suggest an investment newsletter focusing on said topic.

Why not try a risk free trial subscription to Big Gold?

Wonder Why You Can’t Buy The Gold Coins You Want?

You just can’t talk about government manipulation of gold and silver without an army of know-it-alls calling you a crank.

Much as I hate the problems related to personal gold coin ownership, I certainly feel that folks ought to be able to buy from our own mint the gold and silver coins that they want at a reasonable price.

For the last six months, however, good luck finding the coins at all, let alone for a reasonable price.

The U.S. Mint originally complained about supply problems, with the manufactured blanks that is, with all the pundits telling us that there is and never was a shortage of the precious metals themselves.

Isn’t “bullocks” what our friends across the pond say?

Well, someone finally tallied up all of the rot spewing from the mouthpiece of the U.S. Mint and put it into one cohesive article.

Check it out:

U.S. Mint discourages gold ownership.

I wish I had the money to buy and a place to store it if I did. But the times I considered buying a little GLD or SLV when prices where down I would sometimes fall into a trap of either:

  • wanting it cheaper yet
  • listening to someone like Jon Nadler or Dennis Gartman saying it’s finished and going MUCH lower

Thankfully I have a little in my portfolio.

Well yesterday even the Swiss National Bank admitted that Richard Russell has it right. When choosing between “inflate or die” the Swiss government has chosen to inflate.

If gold is money, and it is, what currency do you really want to be in when everyone is inflating?

Gold. You got it. Well, metaphorically you’ve got it, because good luck finding it to buy.

I thank my friends at the Casey Report and Ed Steer of Casey Daily Resource for keeping this info in my face on a daily basis.

Dennis Gartman is Concerned About Being Short Gold

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter, a $500/month financial newsletter, has a short gold position on at about $810 with a stop in the low $830’s (which came close to taking him out).

Recently, however, upon attending a gold conference Mr. Gartman noted extreme despondency among the participants.

Knowing that the extreme optimism last Spring was a indicator of a short term market top, Dennis is now concerned that the despondency may be indicating bullishness. Naturally, that makes a man who is short gold rather nervous.

No word yet on if he is willing to bank a $40 profit and close the position, but we will see.

Hitler Gets a Margin Call

Hitler Gets a Margin Call
For anyone who knows a few names or a couple of stocks in the gold and silver resource world, this is so funny you will definitely laugh until you cry; then again, some may just cry as the empathize with Der Fuhrer!

I won’t be a spoiler, but the final line resonates well with many of the posts I have written on this site about a guy who, a few weeks ago, was quite spiteful to anyone he could consider a gold bug – as if being a gold bug was on par with being a terrorist – but has recently softened his tone somewhat, just in time for gold to rally.

Please watch and enjoy.

Government Takes Over Fannie and Freddie (but everything’s fine)

Conveniently announced after market close on a Friday, frankly I’m surprised they didn’t do it last Friday with a 3 day weekend to help mute the response, the U.S. Government is going to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a bailout that will cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars and effectively wipe out common shareholders.

But it’s Ok, everything is fine, or so they’d like you to believe. The U.S. Dollar is up, gold, silver, oil and anything that resembles a commodity or commodity common stock is getting chewed up and spit out.

I was in the brokerage business briefly in the 1980’s, right around the time of the big crash of ’87. My thought was that it was a fairly slimy business to be in, so I got out. But to see the names that were so larger than life – Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch – go down the toilet today is really hard to fathom.

In fact, the only firm that seems to consistently come out smelling like a rose is Goldman Sachs, that shining Wall Street example that some have accused of being joined at the hip with the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. Maybe it’s who you know after all.

But don’t buy gold or silver, don’t buy precious metals stocks, and stay away from oil, gas and uranium while you are at it. The government and media seem consigned to agree to sell you the story that only the U.S. Dollar need be bought and with those dollars you can safely buy the Dow, S&P, bonds or whatever else some Wall Street firm trying to shore up its balance sheet wants to sell you.

I admit, for the last few weeks they have put on quite a convincing show. They even have Jon Nadler and Dennis Gartman signed on to the program it seems.

Shoot, one would expect China is heading back into the 14th century, experiment over and failed, everybody in China will return to their farm. At least if you believe what you hear.

But I suspect that won’t be the case. For one, Asians and Indians (dot, not feather) seem to be much more open to the idea of long hours and hard work than your average American. And I say that with confidence knowing that over 50% of Americans are net recipients of funds vis a vis Uncle Sam’s Treasury.

Yes, Korea definitely has an issue going on again as does Thailand. But I don’t think they are going to wait for a U.S. economic miracle before they decide to create their own.

Unemployment just turned in a nasty 6.1% number yesterday. I am here to tell you that my impression of the labor pool here in the Midwest is nothing to be particularly proud of.

Our radio stations blare commercials boasting jobs for trained CNC (computer numerically controlled machines) operators with starting wages of $15 per hour. Folks, $15 per hour is less than the untrained factory worker received in the early 1980’s (when those jobs still existed) and let’s not even go there with regard to the benefits package comparison.

You should see the demoralized, unenthusiastic applicants who slog up to the counter and apply for jobs with the companies I do work for. It is NOT a pretty site.

Bottom line is that I don’t believe the talking heads on the tube or our beloved Government. And NO, I don’t believe there is HOPE in the name of Barack Hussein Obama. Things are not getting better soon here and NO the rest of the world is NOT going to wait for us to fix it (Europe might, though).

Successful investing (not trading) relies on identifying long term trends, buying right, then sitting tight. VERY hard to do in times like this, I know.

But to succeed you need good, reliable information. I recommend these:
Casey Research
the TREND letter

Dennis Gartman on Banks, Commodities, Oil

I listened over the weekend to an interview of Dennis Gartman from last week. Dennis has some odd calls on gold of late, but the man is very smart, gets up very early every morning and is able to charge an awful lot for his investment newsletter.

Dennis was saying that he thinks banks, if using a time frame of at least one year, are a great buy; specifically mentioning JP Morgan and Wachovia among a couple of others. Yes, Wells Fargo did report better than expected earnings last week, but WFC has seemed to run a better ship than most banks over the last few years, and its stock price has been rewarded accordingly.

Part of his rational on buying bank stocks here is the old adage

“when they’re crying you should be buying” and “when they’re yelling you need to be selling”

There is no doubt there is a lot of crying going on with bank stocks, the question is will there be more?

All I can say is “Mr. Gartman, with all due respect I’m still short the financials and I believe I’ll stay that way for now”. Who knows, maybe he’ll be right. I think the bank stocks are still risky waters right now.

Other comments from Dennis were that he thinks corn and other commodities might remain under pressure for the next few months, and that we just saw an important break in the price of crude oil. Well, oil is up again this morning a couple of bucks so I’m not totally convinced about the “break” in oil price – it could just be a minor blip.

We’ll see, won’t we?

I don’t think Jim Rogers would agree with Dennis Gartman; Jim has said that if Fannie & Freddie recovered he would short them some more. I presume he might feel that way about all banks.

As for corn and other food commodities especially, it wouldn’t shock me to find Jim Rogers buying on the dips; but I could be wrong – I can’t seem to locate his phone number to ring him up and ask him!

In the mean time, I’m sticking to the advice that has served me well the last few years; Casey Research and the TREND letter.

Bush Visits Saudi’s – Begs for Help on Oil Price

I was catching up on some interviews Al Korelin did the other day, and he was asking Dennis Gartman about the recent trip President Bush made to Saudi Arabia. Dennis had a number of things to say on the trip and none of them were good.

First off, Bush makes the U.S. look weak when going, hat in hand, begging to the Saudi’s. They support our enemies in a number of ways and are our #3 supplier of Oil. Bush could have gone to the Canadians, our #1 supplier and been more positively received. Saudi Arabia gave Bush a cold “no” and weakened further our stance in the eyes of the world. This is not U.S. Dollar positive to look weak either.

Why did Bush do it? Maybe time will tell, but for now it just looks like a poor policy decision possibly intended to look good in the eyes of the voting American. Who thought the Saudis would respond favorably? They have already stated in recent weeks that there is no need for an increase in production and that the king wants to leave oil in the ground for future generations.

The U.S. Dollar has had enough trouble trying to stage a minor comeback, this failed presidential visit to Saudi Arabia can only hurt.

Translation: Buy gold (silver too).

Interestingly enough, Gartman is also bullish on equities. I personally don’t share that sentiment, at least not until another downdraft takes us to lower levels. Several analysts I follow feel there might be a better buying opportunity mid-summer.

What else is Dennis Gartman bullish on? Well, gold is back in favor with Dennis – after only a short hiatus, as is copper. Copper just doesn’t want to go down even though the news every day would make you think the future was not too bright for this commodity.

If you want to know what trends to follow and profit from, might I suggest you subscribe to The Trend Letter?

Dennis Gartman Expects Central Bank Selling To Hold Price Down

Dennis Gartman, everyone’s favorite gold analyst, said yesterday (even before the carnage) that he expects the gold price not to recover much any time soon due to what he expects will be central bank selling. He thinks the banks will sell the allotted gold under the Washington Agreement and that will keep a lid on gold prices.

He could be right. And we all know how central banks have a habit of selling at the proper time, right? Gordon Brown didn’t seem to mind that he cost the British citizenry billions by his inopportune selling of some years ago when the gold price was a fraction of what it is today.

From what we have seen in the last decade, any time a central bank offered gold for sale it was wise to get in line to buy it. Maybe it’s supposed to be a form of government hand out?

Unfortunately, if history repeats itself, Dennis Gartman won’t be bullish on gold until its “showing strength” which may not be until it blasts past the old high. I rather be an owner at $850 and watch it tap $780 than to be an owner at $950 or $1025.

You can many times make a fortune buying when there is blood in the streets. There is blood now. But be careful what you buy.

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