I just read Stratfor’s 4th quarter projection courtesy of John Mauldin’s newsletter.
These people are very sharp and have a respected track record.
When it comes to geo-political stuff all I can do is read it; I certainly can’t take issue with their analysis other than to say that the Israeli contact I just met with personally indicates a different tack with Iran than Stratfor seemed to indicate.
Another no surprise bulletin is that Russia has energy wealth and intends to torment Europe as much as possible. If the oil price doesn’t go too low and they have the money, Russia will mess with the U.S. by getting more involved in Cuba, South & Latin America and Mexican criminal activity.
But what really shocked me is that Stratfor suspects the U.S. recession will not only be short, but could be over with by year end. 2008 is the year end they implied.
Stratfor believes our underlying economy is strong and that the banks are essentially sound. Did I read that right?
Now Europe and Asia are another story and will likely suffer in 2009. (Doesn’t that mean we will too?)
Since commodities are going lower, yes – oil too, then so will gold. And the food prices will go down too. This is the first time I have heard that people eat less in recessions, but go figure. Unless those food price spikes were 100% evil speculators and not hungry 2nd and 3rd world peoples finally putting something in their mouth besides dirt and flies.
Naturally, gold and silver will go in the toilet too, then. If commodities go down, the U.S. dollar stays strong and there is no industrial demand for silver, gold or the PGMs then why not just own dollars?
I’m just not sure I can buy all of that.
Time will tell.
As they say at the TREND letter ($50 discount through this link only!), it’s your money – take control!
