By By John Mauldin
I wrote some time ago that Greece had a choice between Disaster A: staying in the euro; and Disaster B: leaving the euro. I have recently come back from four days in Greece, meeting with lots of people at all levels of society, and will share with you in this letter my analysis of their choices and the results. I’ll also have a few things to say about what the developments in Greece might mean for the rest of Europe and the developed world.
I penned these words in January of 2010:
“Everyone knows the problems of Greece. There is no political will in the country (so far) to do what Ireland has done, and really cut their budget. I think Spain is an even bigger nightmare for the EU when compared to relatively small Greece. Italy? Belgium? Portugal? All those countries (and their voters) will be watching to see how the EU deals with Greece.”
Which was good for Greece, as it gave good reason for the rest of Europe to care about what happened to Athens.
Let’s start with the conclusion: they have chosen to stay in the euro. If a depression meets your definition of an economic disaster, then it is reasonable to conclude that their choice has been a disaster. Greek GDP is projected to be down by 25% by the end of 2013, as measured from the beginning of the crisis. Exiting the euro at this time would only…
Continue reading Prisoner of the Bureaucracy at Mauldin Economics.